Orange, Blue, Red or Green – How Will The Parties Finish

It’s the eve before the 2011 Canadian federal election and for the parties this is the culmination of their hard work these past few weeks. We have already seen a nice increase in voters via the advance polls for this election and we hope that trend continues tomorrow as well. Youth voters seem to be coming out in larger numbers than the past few elections and we will discuss why over the next few weeks.

The NDP has seen the largest increase in potential voters of any of the parties if we are to believe the polls. And that’s an important thing to point out as some of the polling companies are admitting their tried and tested method of conducting electoral polls – land-line phone calls – is no longer that reliable as so many younger voters do not have a land-line phone to be reached on and direct polling of those groups show they prefer as a percentage to overwhelmingly vote center-left. If voting was restricted to those 25 and under the Green Party would be in majority territory. This speaks to further electoral reform and that will very much hinge on the outcome of the election tomorrow.

The Conservatives long ago locked up their voter base and had to fight for the undecideds and independent voters. Their campaign seemingly concentrated more on pointing out faults with the Liberals first then the NDP as they overtook the Liberals in polling. They also pushed the issue of a coalition we believe a bit too hard if they really wanted those undecided and independent voters – they are not likely to be pushed on the idea that a coalition is wrong, un-Canadian or somehow undesirable under our type of government. The Conservatives also keeping their candidates away from public meetings and many interviews also played badly in some regions of Canada. The Conservative Party headquarters denies this was a planned thing but there are far too many instances across Canada of this happening for it to be a coincidence in our opinion.

The Liberals had a heck of a hill to climb with Canadians still unsure of them because of their prior governing problems, and the almost two-year long negative campaign ads waged against them and their leader. As the month progressed towards the election they failed to recapture many of their lost voters and may have lost even more to the NDP due to strategic voting taking place. Tomorrow will show if the NDP, Greens or Liberals gained the majority of protest votes against the Conservatives and whether any of the many ‘ABC’ or vote-sharing etc ideas actually worked. The vultures are also circling the party if they really lose lots of seats – we expect a push to join with the NDP if they do badly May 2.

The Bloc seemed to start out strong and can always count on their own traditional base of voters each election but at the midway point of the campaign the NDP started to pull voters from the Bloc to their camp. They never seemed to be able to turn that tide back and with some lower-profile Bloc members publicly stating that this election they will vote NDP doesn’t seem to bode too well for them.

The Greens may make their breakthrough with Elizabeth May winning her very tight contest against the incumbent Conservative candidate. Overall though being kept out of the debates and in many regions – right out of the media – has hurt their chances. Some polling companies do not even ask respondents if they will vote Green – only the big three. Not only unfair for the Greens but all the small parties. And speaking of the small parties – it seems none will make a breakthrough this election season.

Federal Politics Journal predictions for the 2011 Canadian federal election:
Conservatives and NDP vie for the minority government lead with the Conservatives losing a few seats but still winning more than any other party. The vote splitting on the left will not be overcome to any great degree and will be a deciding factor in this election. The Liberals will lose 10-15 seats with these loses to the NDP and Conservatives. Elizabeth May will make history by the slimmest of margins and maybe even a recount. Total votes will be up by 7-10% over the past election. For the small parties there will be no breakthrough for them.

FPJ predicts a smaller Conservative government with the NDP as the official opposition.

Related posts:

1. Contempt of Parliament – Spring Election
2. Corporate Tax Cuts and 2011 Election
3. 2011 Federal Election Voter Turnout
4. Green Party Leader Elizabeth May Denied Spot In Leaders’ Debate
5. 2011 Federal Election Campaign Trail